Portland: Current Outlook
Merritt Paulson has officially submitted a bid to MLS!!!! As the first of the rumored canidates, it will be interesting to hear who else will make a bid in the coming weeks. Additionally, the renderings of the new stadiums look great and stadiums look to be a perfect fit. The figures being discussed for both stadiums seem very reasonable and feasible in our mind, and we'll be looking for further hard details as they come available. From our sources, the council is on-board and should have a final vote on the matter sometime in January/February after the decision by MLS is announced. Lents, after some initial concerns over parking, seems to be behind bringing the Beavers to their neighborhood as well, making it extremely likely that we have submitted a powerful bid.

Other strong contenders have recently been in the news with less than enthusiastic comments about bringing MLS to their respective cities. Although it could just be posturing (likely in our minds), both Joey Saputo and Jeff Cooper have gone on the record saying they are also looking at other soccer options. We doubt this will seriously impact either candidate’s bids, but it could be a pre-cursor for one of those competitors dropping out, which would likely significantly boost Portland’s chances.

Atlanta
What is there to say about Atlanta? The city has the notorious reputation of not supporting major league teams regardless of their record. MLS desperately wants a presence in the most valuable media market in the South East. However, Atlanta hasn’t shown that the market can support another professional sports team enough to justify an expansion bid. The possibility of an MLS team in Atlanta has received minimal coverage in the media and only a few one-liners from Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank. The city seems destined to spend the foreseeable future in the USL first division.

Miami
Miami has already failed once as an MLS market when the Miami Fusion were contracted in 2001. With MLS trying to complete their media footprint throughout the country and the South East the city has found itself on many expansion short lists. However, even with all the rumors and speculation over the years, no investor has stepped up to lead a firm expansion bid, and the city recently pulled the deal for a SSS (Soccer Specific Stadium) off the table due to lack of interest. With the league now showing the promise of sustained revenue, one has to wonder if this is really the right time to return to a once soiled market. The interesting twist to the Miami saga is the rumors of Barcelona being interested in putting a team in Miami. We’ll wait to hear if they actually submit a bid, but this could be one of options no one ever really sees coming.  

Montreal
With St. Louis possibly taking the first expansion slot for 2011, the second biggest threat to Portland owner Merritt Paulson’s plan has emerged in the form of a Montreal bid. While the league has fallen in love with the success of Toronto FC, both at the gates and the register, another Canadian city has risen as contender for the second 2011 slot. The Montreal Impact’s billionaire owners, the Saputo family, have teamed up with another billionaire, Liverpool co-owner George Gillette. This partnership offers the marriage of big money and the “cosmopolitan” city that MLS is looking for. However, the recently completed 13,000 seat stadium needs to be expanded to about 20,000 seats. It also lacks many necessities, improved concessions and luxury suites for example, which would help to provide the ancillary revenues needed for a MLS franchise to be profitable.

However, since the announcement of Gillette joining the investor group, we haven’t heard any other mention of him being seriously involved with the group. Additionally, the interview Saputo gave to the Montreal Gazette showed that they are considering staying at the USL level. Another potential road-block is the fact the team is a non-profit entity. Is Saputo willing to give that up (along with the government assistance that comes with that status)? Should Montreal not bid, it would certainly change the race to the 18th slot.

New York
The New York Mets owner has stated interest in building a SSS next to the new Mets stadium in Queens. The biggest enemy of this expansion effort is time. Getting anything done in New York is a LONG process (ask yourself why both NFL teams play in New Jersey). The New York Red Bulls franchise, formerly the New York Metrostars, took over 10 years to make their stadium a reality, and because of all the market logistics, is still currently under construction in Harrison New Jersey. The driving force behind the desire for a second team in the New York area is to give fans a team within the city, as most feel that the Red Bulls are a New Jersey team. In order to capture the fickle New York sports fan, the expansion New York team must play in New York City proper. As a result, Red Bull Park or Giants stadium may not be acceptable interim venues for this team. It is apparent that MLS would love to convert more fans in New York, and there will almost undoubtedly be a second team in New York at some point, the question is, is MLS ready to jump in this early with other strong contenders available?   
   
St. Louis
The most mature expansion effort of all the candidate cities is found in the Midwest as the St. Louis United bid. This effort has already secured approval and funding for a stadium seating 18,500 and an accompanying 400 acre retail and residential community across the river from downtown St. Louis in
Collinsville, IL. Essentially, Collinsville is to St. Louis as Vancouver, Washington is to Portland. The man behind the effort is Jeff Cooper, who is worth a considerable sum but was lacking a big money investment partner to make his MLS bid a reality. It has been reported that he has drummed up a deep-pocketed ownership group, but no names have been announced. It is interesting to note the long period of time that this expansion bid has sat idle waiting for MLS approval, during which Philadelphia swept up the 16th team slot. There have been some concerns that the St. Louis stadium deal may be slightly weaker because of the recent downturn in the economy and Jeff Cooper has gone on record that the price for a franchise was getting too expensive, but we still believe that St. Louis will most likely take the 17th expansion slot.   

Vancouver
Much like Montreal, Portland’s current Cascadia Cup rival the Vancouver Whitecaps are also hoping to leave the USL in their rearview mirror. Although their current plans for a downtown Vancouver waterfront stadium have failed to materialize for years, their chances are not solely dependent upon that factor. MLS is on record as stating that the revamped post-Olympic BC Place would be a suitable interim venue for a Vancouver MLS franchise. Their billionaire owner Greg Kerfoot has recently added celebrity power to their efforts with the inclusion into the ownership group of NBA star Steve Nash, a Vancouver native. We really don’t know where Vancouver stacks up, with some possible stadium problems caused by the Olympics, along with Montreal a contender in Canada, and Portland in the Pacific Northwest, but we believe they could just miss out on this round.

Ottawa
A surprising late-comer to the MLS expansion race, NHL owner Eugene Melynk has announced he wants to bring a team to Ottawa. He has access to money, but Montreal has a stadium along with supporters, so we’d be very surprised to see Ottawa jumping ahead of most of the teams on the list. It certainly could happen, but Vancouver, Montreal, St. Louis, Portland, and probably even New York and Miami are most likely in front of Ottawa. 
 

What is needed for a bid

We think there are 6 basic milestones for any city that pursues an MLS expansion slot. Generally a candidate city needs 1) a suitable market size 2) a competent and wealthy owner group 3) a stadium plan 4) stadium funding 5) to fit with MLS expansion strategy 6) to overcome any city-specific hurdles. This scale reflects where each city lies with respect to having checked off any of the six criteria.